Match Preview:
While both the Netherlands and Chile will progress to the World Cup knockout stage, this match has importance. For the nation that finishes top of the group, it likely avoids Brazil in the round of 16 – setting up a quarter-final against the winners of Group D (currently looking likely to be Costa Rica) or the runners-up in Group C (potentially the Cote d’Ivoire). Therefore, the Group B runners-up will likely have a tougher game in the round of 16 than the group winners can expect until the semi-final.
Both Chile and the Netherlands have impressed so far, defeating defending World Champions Spain convincingly and surviving battles against Australia. But the Netherlands go into this contest with the advantage – just needing a draw to progress to the World Cup knockout stage as group winners due to its superior goal difference.
What the Netherlands and Chile have done superbly in this World Cup so far is hit teams on the counter – as both have a lot of pace in their attacks – while playing with three men at the back, as both line-up in a 3-4-1-2/5-2-1-2 formation. With the similar set-ups and styles, this match either has the potential to be an all-out attacking end-to-end match-up or the two sides will cancel each other out toward a low-to-no scoring contest.
The Netherlands will be without star striker Robin van Persie due to a suspension as well as defender Bruno Martins Indi, who is set to miss out due to a concussion sustained against Australia. While van Persie is confident in his replacements, he’s currently tied with four others for the World Cup’s Golden Boot, including teammate Arjen Robben, so it could be costly for the striker on a personal level. Klass-Jan Huntelaar is the most likely to deputise for the Manchester United striker – scorer of 12 goals in the Bundesliga last term, averaging 0.74 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, which tied Robin van Persie for second place among Dutch players in Europe’s top five leagues (behind Arjen Robben).
Chile may be without midfielders Arturo Vidal and Charles Aranguiz due to injury, but both have picked up a yellow card during the tournament so it could be a good time to rest the pair ahead of the round of 16 to avoid a possible suspension, with Carlos Carmona could deputise. Vidal, of course, had just returned from a knee injury but he’s now also damaged his right Achilles tendon. However, he’s not concerned about picking up a second yellow in the competition and wants to feature. Speaking to Chile’s El Mercurio newspaper, the Juventus midfielder said:
“This squad is showing how great it is and that’s why I’m not thinking about that yellow card, nor that I could be suspended,
“I just hope to play and be in the group, that’s the mentality of this group”.
Vidal is vital to the side going forward. He’s done well in Brazil, working his way back up to fitness, so will only improve – and losing a player of his quality for the round of 16 would be a huge blow. Simply put, he’s one of the world’s most complete midfielders when healthy – averaging 0.59 goal contributions and 1.73 shot assists on a per 90 minute basis during the 2013/14 Serie A season, while also being a strong passer (57.79 passes per 90 with 87.1% accuracy), strong in the air (1.59 aerials won per 90) and can tackle (4.79 tackles per 90).
It’s a big question for Jorge Sampaoli – does he risk Vidal? The risk is a suspension, but if he helps Chile top the group it would be worth the reward – given the difference between playing Brazil or Mexico/Croatia. As the Netherlands just need a draw to top the group, it is a tough decision for Sampaoli to make.
If Vidal is absent, more pressure is on the country’s other superstar, Alexis Sanchez, but he has had a great start to his World Cup campaign, scoring and assisting one goal as well as attempting three and assisting four shots – and was a constant threat throughout both of Chile’s opening two games. Furthermore, the Chile defence that entered the World Cup with question marks excelled against Spain, although it should be noted that Spain played with less width than Australia, who had success from the wings against the fairly short Chile rear guard as a total of eight of 19 Australian crosses were successful on the night, a 42.1% success rate, including Tim Cahill’s goal.
The Netherlands are the BSports Match Analysis tool favourites to win this contest with a 47.7% chance of victory for Louis van Gaal’s side as the draw is at 27.4%. Therefore, Chile have a 24.9% chance of topping Group B – and facing potentially the more favourable route to the semi-final stage of the tournament.
Netherlands Injuries & Suspensions: Robin van Persie (Suspended), Bruno Martins Indi (Out)
Chile Injuries & Suspensions: Arturo Vidal (Questionable), Charles Aranguiz (Questionable)
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